Extremists and Statistics
There’s ‘classical’ feminism, and then there’s extreme feminism
The issue of false accusations on campus is not a Republican or Democratic issue. Sure, President Obama and even more so Vice-President Biden, have gotten a lot of mileage out of the mythical “1 in 5” statistic, possibly for purely political gain, but since I voted for them, I’m still willing to assume that they have been misled instead of willfully throwing our college men under the bus.
But the fact is that the outlets that conservatives love to hate, such as the New York Times and NPR, have, until the last few weeks, been strikingly one-sided on this issue. Save Our Sons has looked for relevant articles and commentary from any source, and until recently, these tended to be right-leaning media outlets.
A lot has changed in the last few weeks.
From my perspective, a month ago only the right-leaning media outlets were willing to refute the extremist feminist positions, and even they were afraid to challenge the two “holy truths”:
- Myth 1: 1 in 5 girls are raped in college
- Myth 2: Always believe the accuser
A real turning point was the 28 Harvard law professor’s open challenge to Harvard’s Sexual Assault Policy, and by extension, the nationwide trend denying due process rights to those accused. These legal scholars, some of them openly liberal, were able to call into question the mantra to ‘always believe the accuser,’ and it opened a trickle of stories. The New York Times covered it, and then a few days later had their first balanced look at the issue.
Then came the Rolling Stone UVA article, which Salon hailed as “one of the best articles I wish I’d never had to read”, and then more importantly, its implosion. Salon had four articles on the fallout of the faked storyline over as many days. The best piece analyzing the media maelstrom was in Real Clear Politics.
The ‘always believe the accuser,’ now could be seen to be farcical, despite protestations that the ‘fake story’ proves the ‘reality’ of the prevalence of campus rape:
So what if this instance was more fictional than fact and didn’t actually happen to Jackie?…. The rape culture we try so hard to deny was brought out from its diseased shadows and shocked people with its true face. (Huffington Post)
Since when did falsity prove reality? Only when ‘holy truth’ is challenged by logic. Now the media trickle feels more like a flood, although the article above shows that extremism hates being exposed as extreme and there will be a feminist backlash.
Finally, the real facts are out from the Justice Department, and it’s a first that this viewpoint was reported by NPR. The “1 in 5” is off by several orders of magnitude.
So now, there are many stories about false accusations… from all media outlets, including the New York Times. Save Our Sons tracks all the major media outlets, throughout the political spectrum, regardless of the ‘lean’ of the publication. This new balance is refreshing.
California’s “yes means yes” law turns the idea of sexual consent upside down. Suddenly, nearly all sex is rape.. It was only a matter of time before backers of the law decided to make their definition (which is almost impossible to prove) the law of the land.
m.washingtonexaminer.com By Ashe Schow
These dysfunctional policies..originated from the fundamentally flawed view that society must accommodate the needs and wants of victims even at the cost of due process.
claremontindependent.com Commentary by undergraduate students Derek Ko and Steven Glick
Mothers, it’s up to you. Will you continue to be silent as your innocent sons are used as cannon fodder for the radical feminist agenda? If you care about your sons and your daughters, speak up.
Americans have been living through an enormously sensationalized college rape hoax, but as the evidence accumulates it’s becoming clear that the entire thing was just a bunch of media hype and political opportunism.
www.usatoday.com By Glenn Harlan Reynolds
In April 2013, former University of Florida student Tanya Borachi lied to police about getting bound and gagged in a Gainesville apartment complex parking lot. At Princeton University student Mindy Brickman falsely accused a fellow Princeton student of raping her. In April 2013, University of Wyoming student Meg Lanker-Simons, then 28, anonymously posted a rape threat directed at herself on a Facebook page called UW Crushes.
“I am a feminist, for whatever that’s worth. I am a person who is outraged by any act of violence. But I also support the American presumption that a person is innocent until proven guilty.”
m.utsandiego.com By Peg Rosen
Occidental College has almost FIVE times the forcible sex offense rate of any other school in California
The 2014-15 Cleary Act numbers for Occidental: Rape: 8, Fondling: 6, for a total of 14. Still a huge number, but in some ways showing how extreme the 2013-2014 school year was at Occidental.
Here are the Cleary Act numbers for Occidental: (from http://ope.ed.gov/security/):
|Criminal Offenses – On campus|
|Total occurrences On campus|
|a. Murder/Non-negligent manslaughter||0||0||0|
|b. Negligent manslaughter||0||0||0|
|c. Sex offenses – Forcible||11||10||60|
For all of California 4-year institutions, here are the numbers:
|Criminal Offenses – On campus (Reporting Year: 2013)|
|Total occurrences On campus|
|a. Murder/Non-negligent manslaughter||2||0||1|
|b. Negligent manslaughter||0||0||0|
|c. Sex offenses – Forcible||229||271||397|
Search Criteria: Undergraduate Enrollment: ‘Between 500 and 999’, ‘Between 1,000 and 1,499’, ‘Between 1,500 and 1,999’, ‘Between 2,000 and 2,999’, ‘Between 3,000 and 4,999’, ‘Between 5,000 and 9,999’, ‘Between 10,000 and 14,999’, ‘Between 15,000 and 19,999’, ‘Between 20,000 and 29,999’, ‘30,000 and greater’ Institution State: ‘CA’; Type of institution: ‘Public, 4-year or above’, ‘Private nonprofit, 4-year or above’, ‘Private for-profit, 4-year or above’
Here is a spreadsheet from the Cleary site showing the top 18 schools, by rate, showing that Occidental is almost FIVE times the rate of any other school in California (excluding schools with under 500 students):
|Year||Institution||Campus||Institution Size||Sex offenses – Forcible||Rate|
|2013||Occidental College||Occidental College||2128||60||2.82%|
|2013||Claremont McKenna College||Main Campus||1328||8||0.60%|
|2013||Pomona College||Main Campus||1610||8||0.50%|
|2013||Harvey Mudd College||Main Campus||807||4||0.50%|
|2013||Whittier College||Main Campus||2339||5||0.21%|
|2013||Scripps College||Main Campus||1009||2||0.20%|
|2013||California Institute of Technology||Main Campus||2181||4||0.18%|
|2013||Stanford University||Main Campus||18346||25||0.14%|
|2013||Mills College||Main Campus||1595||2||0.13%|
|2013||University of the Pacific||Main Campus||6421||7||0.11%|
|2013||University of California-Santa Barbara||Main Campus||22225||23||0.10%|
|2013||Southern California University of Health Sciences||Southern California University of Health Sciences Campus||968||1||0.10%|
|2013||Notre Dame de Namur University||Main Campus||2030||2||0.10%|
|2013||Azusa Pacific University||Azusa (main campus)||10755||10||0.09%|
|2013||Pitzer College||Pitzer College||1081||1||0.09%|
|2013||University of California-Hastings College of Law||Main Campus||1088||1||0.09%|
|2013||University of California-Los Angeles||UCLA||40795||33||0.08%|
Search criteria: Undergraduate Enrollment: ‘Between 500 and 999’, ‘Between 1,000 and 1,499’, ‘Between 1,500 and 1,999’, ‘Between 2,000 and 2,999’, ‘Between 3,000 and 4,999’, ‘Between 5,000 and 9,999’, ‘Between 10,000 and 14,999’, ‘Between 15,000 and 19,999’, ‘Between 20,000 and 29,999’, ‘30,000 and greater’, Institution State: ‘CA’, Type of institution: ‘Public, 4-year or above’, ‘Private nonprofit, 4-year or above’, ‘Private for-profit, 4-year or above’
I’ve been putting the Occidental rape rate of 2.82% into context for a bit more understanding of these statistics.
For example, what if you applied the 2.82% rape rate to a large school, say UCLA? With an enrollment of 40795, a 2.82% rape rate would be 1150 students. Can you imagine the outcry if UCLA expelled over 1100 male students in a single year?
But let’s focus on Occidental:
First, a few assumptions, which we have no way of verifying at this point, short of asking Occidental:
– Of the 60 sex offenses, how many were repeat offenders? (was it 60 students found ‘responsible’ for 60 offenses, or were some of the students responsible for multiple infractions?) A reasonable assumption would be that the number of offenders is very close to, if not the same as, the number of offenders.
– Of the 60 sex offenses, how many students were expelled? Given the current climate it would be hard to imagine that any of these offenders were not expelled, but it would be good to know for sure.
– Of the 60 sex offenses, how many ‘responsible’ students were male? It is safe to assume at this point that they were all male, but Occidental could provide confirmation.
So, say you are a male at Occidental, what is the likelihood that you will be expelled this year? If my assumptions are correct, a shocking 6.4% of male students will be expelled. Here’s the math, if I’ve figured it correctly:
– 44% of Occidental students are male, which out of a total enrollment of 2128, means that there are 936 males enrolled.
– if 60 male students were expelled, that would mean that 60 expellees out of 936 males gives a likelihood of expulsion of 6.41%
Can you imagine if Occidental was upfront with their male applicants? What if they advertised that over 6% of their male students were expelled last year, and they can expect the numbers to be the same this year, or worse?
Here’s another way to look at the numbers: what will this do to the male/female ratio at the school? The current ratio is 44% male to 56% female. Take away 60 males from the 936, you get 876. Assuming that you keep the same female enrollment, by the end of the year you have a campus ratio of 41.2% males to 58.8% females. Schools try very hard to keep their numbers away from 40/60, likely because they figure it would discourage both males and females from attending an institution that was so skewed towards one gender. Would Occidental like to advertise that their ratio changes that much during the year, and why?
And what if these numbers were applied to all higher education institutions in America? Total enrollment for 2013 according to http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/12/12/college-enrollment-falls-for-second-year-in-a-row is 19.9 million.
19.9 million * 2.82% is 535,714 students. That is over half a million college students whose dreams are ruined.
The extreme feminists are right about one thing: the culture on America’s colleges would indeed change. Men would all be painfully aware that you can never trust a woman. Feminism just might succeed in bringing all men into their fearful world: all college men should fear that their career opportunities can be stolen from them in a moment’s notice by a false accusation or a ‘retracted consent’, and they have no constitutional rights to defend themselves. If Occidental is a bellwether, their odds of being ruined are 1 in 16.